Scottish Government Advocates for Tailored Migration System Amid Population Decline

London, United Kingdom Aug 30, 2026 ALN: THE Scottish Government has renewed calls for a Scotland-specific migration system, warning that population decline, an ageing workforce and tighter UK visa rules risk damaging communities and economic growth.

Publishing a new paper on the issue, Business Minister Tom Arthur said the Scottish Government had invited the UK Migration Minister to hold talks on tailoring the system to Scotland’s needs.

In response to the paper, a UK Government source told The Scotsman that “the Prime Minister has open ears to any plans that demonstrate a boost to economic growth”.

They added: “But any proposals that are trying to start another constitutional fight and are not in the interest of the country would be a waste of time.”

The Scottish Government paper published on Saturday argues that immigration will become increasingly important to maintaining the workforce, public services and communities as deaths begin to outnumber births.

It says Scotland’s population is projected to remain broadly stable until the early 2030s before beginning a sustained decline, falling from around 5.55 million to 5.47m by 2049.

The report states: “Scotland’s future economic wellbeing depends on the choices we make now and across this parliament.”

It adds: “Without action, Scotland’s population is expected to begin declining in the coming decades as deaths increasingly outnumber births, while the number of older people grows significantly and the number of younger people and working-age adults falls.”

The fresh paper says inward migration of working-age people and their families is “the main way” Scotland can mitigate those demographic changes.

It argues that a UK-wide immigration system is ill-equipped to meet Scotland’s needs, particularly in rural and island communities facing depopulation and recruitment difficulties.

“Communities need people, not just skills,” the report says.

In July 2025, the UK Government said it had “no plans” for a bespoke Scottish visa route after First Minister John Swinney said he wanted a special Scottish graduate visa to be introduced – as Labour did with the “Fresh Talent” scheme in 2005 – and pledged that he is “ready to put in the hard yards” to make it happen.

Launching the paper, Arthur said: “Mirroring a trend in many countries throughout the world, Scotland has an ageing population and areas where the population is falling. This makes immigration ever-more critical in ensuring we have working-age people to fill skills gaps, sustain public services, support communities and grow the economy.

“A migration system designed around UK-wide averages – which is what we have now – cannot adequately respond to Scotland's demographic and geographic circumstances.

“In the spirit of the Prime Minister's public commitment to reset relationships with devolved governments, I have invited the UK Migration Minister to engage with me in constructive discussions to ensure that the immigration system is tailored to Scotland’s needs.”

Ministers highlight projections showing the number of people aged 75 and over will increase by more than 300,000 between 2024 and 2049. Over the same period, the number of children and young adults is expected to fall by more than 320,000.

The Scottish Government further says 20 of Scotland’s 32 council areas recorded an overall population decline in the most recent reporting year, with pressures highly visible in areas including Na h-Eileanan Siar, Shetland and Dumfries and Galloway.

The paper argues Scotland’s future migration policy should account for the need for care workers, hospitality staff, agricultural workers, tradespeople, entrepreneurs, students and families, rather than prioritising only higher-paid and graduate-level jobs.

It warns that the UK Skilled Worker salary threshold of £41,700 creates difficulties for employers in sectors and communities where wages may be lower than the UK average despite serious staff shortages.

“Occupations essential to healthcare, social care, food and drink production and local service provision may struggle to meet national salary thresholds despite experiencing clear recruitment difficulties,” the paper states.

The document puts forward a renewed case for a “Scottish Visa”, first proposed by the Scottish Government in 2020.

Under the proposal, migrants would be allowed to enter the UK to live and work in Scotland, with a Scottish tax code among the conditions attached to the visa.

Ministers suggest two possible models to make this possible. One in which the Home Office designs, administers and issues the visa, and another in which the Scottish Government proposes the criteria while the Home Office retains responsibility for applications and decisions.

The report says such a route could be delivered within the existing UK system, while also restating the Scottish Government’s support for full devolution of immigration powers or independence.

It states: “A migration system designed around UK-wide averages cannot adequately respond to Scotland’s distinct demographic and geographic circumstances.”

The paper also raises concerns about UK proposals to extend the standard route to settlement from five to 10 years.

It warns that higher costs, uncertainty and restrictions on settlement could deter people from building long-term lives in Scotland.

The report concludes that Scotland should have the ability to shape migration policy around its own needs, arguing that recent UK changes have “moved in the opposite direction to Scotland’s needs and values on migration”.