China's Wu Shicun Discusses Potential Construction at Scarborough Shoal

London, United Kingdom Jul 13, 2026 ALN: Wu Shicun is the founding president of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies and chairman of the Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance. In this interview, the first in a series about the South China Sea dispute, he discusses ways Beijing can respond to rival claimants.

With Manila intensifying its “transparency” campaign, how does China view the current situation and what challenges does it face?

The South China Sea has long been a theater of geopolitical tensions, primarily driven by overlapping territorial claims from several nations, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The strategic importance of this maritime region cannot be overstated; it is a crucial artery for global trade, holding significant natural resources such as oil and gas reserves, and is a vital fishing ground for many coastal nations. Given its importance, the South China Sea has become a focal point for national interests and regional security dynamics.

In recent years, the Philippines has adopted a strategy of “assertive transparency,” aimed at countering what it perceives as aggressive actions by China in the contested waters. This initiative includes the documentation and publicizing of incidents that Manila characterizes as Chinese grey-zone tactics. Examples of these tactics include blockades, aggressive maneuvers, and the use of water cannons against Filipino vessels. This strategy is not merely a reaction to immediate confrontations; it is part of a larger effort to reshape the narrative surrounding the South China Sea disputes.

Since 2023, the Philippines has made concerted efforts to assert its claims, particularly around Renai Jiao, known in as the Second Thomas Shoal. This area has seen increased Filipino maritime activity, often designed to provoke a response from China. By doing so, the Philippines aims to showcase Chinese actions as aggressive or hostile, thereby garnering domestic support for its maritime policies while also seeking international sympathy and backing.

The Philippines' approach appears to be a calculated effort to leverage public sentiment. By framing these confrontations as instances of Chinese bullying, the Philippines seeks to unify its population around issues of national sovereignty and maritime security. This public relations strategy is further amplified through social media and traditional media outlets, which package confrontation scenes into viral videos that circulate globally. The goal is to create a narrative where China is perceived as the aggressor, which could lead to increased diplomatic support from allies, particularly the United States.

Internally, the Philippine government is navigating a complex political landscape. Public sentiment is increasingly focused on national sovereignty and maritime security, which the government can use to justify increased military spending and cooperation with allies. This dynamic is particularly salient as the Philippines seeks to modernize its coastguard and military capabilities in response to perceived threats from China.

Wu Shicun emphasizes that if external forces continue to pressure China, Beijing may have no option but to enhance its presence in the South China Sea. This could include the construction of more fixed facilities, the establishment of new bases, and the expansion of existing military infrastructure. Such actions reflect a broader trend in Chinese policy where military and infrastructural developments are viewed as necessary responses to perceived threats. This potential escalation raises concerns about regional stability and the implications for international maritime law.

The ongoing disputes in the South China Sea are not limited to just China and the Philippines; they also involve Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, all of which have competing claims in the region. As these nations assert their claims, the risk of miscalculations and confrontations increases, potentially leading to broader conflicts that could destabilize the region further. The international community is closely monitoring these developments, as they have significant implications for global trade and security.

The United States has reaffirmed its commitment to defending its allies in the region, including the Philippines. This commitment adds another layer of complexity to the situation, as the U.S. has conducted freedom of navigation operations to challenge China’s expansive territorial claims. The U.S. military presence in the region serves as a counterbalance to Chinese assertiveness, complicating the strategic calculations of all parties involved.

Moreover, any potential construction activities by China at Scarborough Shoal or elsewhere in the South China Sea could provoke strong responses from neighboring countries and the international community. Such actions might be interpreted as violations of international maritime law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which governs maritime rights and responsibilities. The Philippines has previously sought arbitration under UNCLOS, resulting in a landmark ruling in 2016 that invalidated China's extensive claims in the South China Sea. However, China has rejected this ruling, asserting its historical rights over the area, which adds another layer of complexity to the already fraught situation.

Wu's remarks highlight the delicate balance that China must strike between asserting its claims and managing international perceptions. The potential for increased military presence and construction could exacerbate tensions, leading to a cycle of escalation that destabilizes the region further. As the situation evolves, the role of external actors, including the United States and regional powers like Japan and Australia, will be crucial in shaping the dynamics of the South China Sea disputes. Their responses to China's actions and the Philippines' initiatives will influence the strategic calculations of all parties involved.

In conclusion, the South China Sea remains a flashpoint of geopolitical tension, with significant implications for regional security and international law. Wu Shicun's insights underscore the complexities of the situation as China navigates external pressures while considering its strategic interests in the region. The ongoing developments will require careful monitoring, as the stakes continue to rise for all countries involved in this contentious maritime dispute. The interplay of national interests, regional security dynamics, and international law will continue to shape the future of the South China Sea, making it a critical area of focus for policymakers and analysts alike.