Iran's Missile Strategy Targets Jordan to Facilitate Attacks on Israel

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Jul 16, 2026 ALN: Iran has concentrated its firepower on Jordan’s military bases in a potential "shaping operation" to knock out air defenses for a renewed assault on Israel. In the past week, Iran has launched attacks with ballistic missiles and drones on three air-defense sites in Jordan, including bases hosting American forces. This escalation in hostilities marks a significant shift in Iran's military strategy, as it seeks to enhance its operational capabilities against Israel while simultaneously targeting U.S. forces stationed in the region.

The recent attacks are part of a broader context of heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, particularly following Washington’s renewed military actions against Iranian interests. The U.S. military is understood to be the main target of these Iranian strikes, but there is also a strategic component aimed at degrading Jordan’s air defenses. By doing so, Tehran aims to increase the likelihood of successful future ballistic missile and drone strikes against Israel, which it views as an adversary.

“The Jordanian military and intelligence assessments are that this is preparation for possible future strikes,” said political analyst Prof Zaid Eyadat, speaking from Amman. “Iran needs to deal with Jordan's bases because they will be the front line for defense and the targets were very specific in three defense zones, with two of them close to Israel.” This statement underscores the critical geographic position of Jordan in the regional security landscape, as it serves as a buffer between Israel and potential Iranian aggression.

Defence Coordination

Jordan sits directly on one of the most useful flight paths for Iranian strikes into Israel and has shot down large numbers of projectiles in the past two years as they overfly the country. The Jordanian military has been actively engaged in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones, demonstrating its commitment to safeguarding its airspace and supporting Israel's security. Fears that Iran might be conducting an air defense shaping operation— the military term for actions taken to make an offensive more likely to succeed— increased after Tehran struck two airbases on Tuesday.

In response to the escalating threat, it is understood that the Jordanians are now working closely with the Israeli military to coordinate their defenses in case Iran launches an attack on Israel. Prof Eyadat, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said, “theories are on the table” in discussions suggesting it could be a shaping operation for a future attack. However, the prevailing view among analysts is that Iran will only attack Israel if it perceives that it has been struck first, indicating a level of strategic caution on Tehran's part.

“The Israelis and Jordanians really are coordinating, taking this in concentration,” added the former political adviser to the king of Jordan. The country’s air defenses in previous Iranian strikes had been “very effective to the extent that Israelis actually do think of Jordan as a partner.” This partnership is crucial in the context of regional security, as both nations share a common interest in countering Iranian influence and aggression.

Massed Drones

Former military intelligence officer Dr. Lynette Nusbacher argued that she would be convinced it was a shaping operation if Iran planned to carry out mass drone attacks on Israel. “The Iranians would expect that they can significantly degrade Jordanian and, more importantly, American capability to enable the Iranians to fly drones to Israel over Jordan in massive numbers,” she said. This assertion highlights the evolving nature of warfare, where drone technology is becoming increasingly central to military strategies worldwide.

Tehran’s reliance on drones has been driven by the degradation of its ballistic missile capabilities, which have been compromised by various factors, including international sanctions and targeted military actions. The regime's reluctance to expose its launch sites to U.S. surveillance further complicates its military strategy. Dr. Nusbacher disclosed that it is highly likely that the Iranians were receiving precise targeting data from the Russians to target specific parts of air bases, including radars and air defenses. This collaboration between Iran and Russia underscores the geopolitical alliances that are shaping the current conflict dynamics in the Middle East.

With Moscow unwilling to provide targeting information for Israeli bases, the Iranians are motivated to suppress American and Jordanian air defense capabilities. “Because you're going to fly low-flying, slow-moving drones over Jordan to get to Israel,” Dr. Nusbacher explained, emphasizing the tactical considerations at play. The implications of this strategy are significant, as it not only threatens Israel's security but also raises the stakes for U.S. military involvement in the region.

The situation remains fluid, with both Iran and its adversaries adjusting their strategies in response to ongoing developments. The potential for escalation is high, and the international community is closely monitoring these events, as they could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability. Analysts suggest that any miscalculation or unintended confrontation could lead to a broader conflict, drawing in multiple actors and exacerbating an already volatile situation.

In conclusion, Iran's missile strategy targeting Jordan is emblematic of a larger pattern of aggressive posturing in the region. As Iran seeks to enhance its military capabilities and operational flexibility against Israel, the implications for regional security are profound. The coordination between Jordan and Israel, along with the involvement of the United States, will be critical in shaping the outcomes of these developments. The interplay of military strategy, geopolitical alliances, and the potential for conflict underscores the complexity of the situation and the need for careful diplomatic engagement to avoid escalation.