Strategic Experts Discuss India’s Sea-Based Nuclear Capabilities and Regional Security

Islamabad, Pakistan Jul 15, 2026 ALN: The Arms Control and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) recently hosted a high-level roundtable discussion titled “India’s Sea-Based Nuclear Capabilities: Implications for Pakistan.” This event brought together prominent strategic experts, diplomats, and military analysts to examine the qualitative shift in South Asia’s deterrence architecture following the operational deployment of India’s sea-based nuclear arsenal, as highlighted in a press release.

In his welcome remarks, Ambassador Khalid Mehmood, Chairman of the Board of Governors at ISSI, emphasized the gravity of the evolving regional security dynamics. He noted that the operationalization of India’s sea-based nuclear deterrent represents a significant qualitative and structural shift in regional security. This shift is not merely a technical enhancement of India’s military capabilities but also alters the strategic calculus for neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan, which has historically viewed India as its primary security concern.

Ambassador Mehmood further stated that these developments necessitate a clear-eyed reassessment of both deterrence postures and diplomatic frameworks to safeguard regional peace and stability. The implications of India’s advancements in its naval capabilities extend beyond mere military strategy; they also challenge existing diplomatic relations and frameworks that have been established over decades. The roundtable aimed to foster a dialogue that could lead to a more nuanced understanding of these dynamics and their potential outcomes.

Malik Qasim Mustafa, Director of ACDC, opened the session by outlining the scope of the discussion and welcoming the participants. He underscored that the profound disruption to South Asian strategic stability would require a rigorous evaluation of the potential doctrinal and technological posture adjustments necessary for Pakistan to maintain a credible deterrent. The emphasis on maintaining a credible deterrent is particularly critical in light of the evolving nature of warfare, where technological advancements can significantly alter the balance of power.

Setting the agenda for the roundtable, Ms. Ghazala Yasmin Jalil, Research Fellow at ACDC, highlighted the significant structural turning points confronting the region, transitioning from recessed deterrence to mated warheads. She raised vital questions regarding how Pakistan can preserve robust Full Spectrum Deterrence without slipping into an expensive, open-ended naval arms race, suggesting that ultimate security lies in negotiating robust maritime Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs). The call for CBMs reflects a growing recognition that military enhancements alone cannot ensure security; diplomatic engagement is equally crucial in mitigating tensions and fostering trust among regional actors.

The event featured detailed thematic evaluations from a panel of distinguished strategic thinkers. Vice Admiral (Retd.) Dr. Ahmed Saeed HI(M), former President of the National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), highlighted the growing strategic imbalance in the Indian Ocean driven by India’s massive investment in acquiring advanced conventional and nuclear submarines (SSBNs). The Indian Navy's expansion, particularly in the context of its nuclear capabilities, poses a significant challenge not only for Pakistan but also for the broader balance of power in the region.

He warned that this rapid naval expansion creates a severe defense asymmetry that lowers the nuclear threshold and heightens the risk of inadvertent escalation between two contiguous nuclear-armed states. The potential for miscalculation in such a charged environment is a critical concern, as even minor incidents could spiral into larger conflicts. To mitigate these maritime risks and prevent an unchecked arms race, Admiral Saeed advocated for robust bilateral Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) alongside a renewed diplomatic push to declare the Indian Ocean a non-nuclear domain. This proposal reflects a strategic vision aimed at de-escalating tensions through cooperative security arrangements rather than competitive military buildups.

Ambassador (Retd.) Zamir Akram, Advisor to the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), warned that India’s rapid vertical proliferation is driving a dangerous shift away from its “No First Use” policy toward a pre-emptive first-strike posture aimed at neutralizing Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence. The implications of such a shift are profound, as it not only alters the strategic landscape but also challenges the existing norms of nuclear deterrence that have been established since the Cold War. Dismissing the notion that these assets are solely directed at China, he highlighted the “deafening silence” and double standards of the international community regarding India’s expanding sea-based capabilities. This development poses a threat extending far beyond South Asia and actively undermines strategic stability at both the regional and global levels, raising questions about the role of global powers in addressing these emerging threats.

To counter this, Ambassador Akram urged Pakistan to expose India’s irresponsible nuclear behavior in the global arena, establish robust crisis-management mechanisms rather than relying on weak bilateral deals, and reinforce its defensive posture by fully operationalizing and deploying nuclear warheads across its land, air, and sea-based triad to guarantee a credible, survival-assured second-strike capability. The emphasis on a triad approach underscores the need for a diversified and resilient nuclear posture that can withstand various forms of attack and ensure a credible deterrent against potential adversaries.

Air Commodore (Retd) Khalid Banuri, Senior Advisor JCCL, Air Headquarters, stated that India’s transition to a permanently mated sea-based nuclear presence has effectively compressed political-military decision-making windows to a frightening degree, eroding traditional peacetime buffers to zero. This compression of decision-making timelines is particularly alarming, as it increases the likelihood of hasty actions taken in response to perceived threats. He unpacked the escalating crisis instability risks, emphasizing that the opacity of the sea leg entangles conventional and nuclear signaling, heavily raising the danger of unintended escalation and inadvertent launch. With India’s “No First Use” doctrine rendered practically meaningless under this new posture, Pakistan’s credible deterrence faces severe strain, compounded by fiscal constraints and the destabilizing integration of emerging technologies.

To preserve strategic stability and avoid a ruinous arms race, he suggested that Pakistan’s optimal response must combine the pursuit of modern technologies, a survivable and strengthened second-strike capability, and proactive diplomatic initiatives. The integration of modern technologies into military strategy is essential for maintaining relevance in an increasingly complex security environment, where traditional paradigms of warfare are being challenged by new developments.

Dr. Aqeel Akhtar discussed the security dilemma surrounding sea-based nuclear deterrence, emphasizing that the growing deployment of nuclear submarines introduces new challenges for command and control, crisis communication, and strategic stability. The complexities of managing a nuclear deterrent that includes a maritime component require robust systems to ensure effective communication and command structures. Looking ahead, he stressed the importance of strengthening secure communication systems, reducing the risks of miscalculation, and developing robust safeguards to prevent inadvertent escalation in an increasingly complex maritime security environment. The need for secure communication is particularly critical in a nuclear context, where the stakes are exceptionally high, and miscommunication could lead to catastrophic consequences.

The presentations were followed by an interactive open discussion session, where members of the strategic community, academia, and media engaged on the policy choices available to Pakistan to maintain strategic equilibrium. The diverse perspectives shared during this session underscored the complexity of the challenges facing Pakistan in the current strategic environment, as well as the need for innovative and collaborative approaches to ensure long-term stability in South Asia. The roundtable not only served as a platform for expert analysis but also highlighted the pressing need for dialogue and cooperation among regional stakeholders to navigate the evolving security landscape.