Prashant Kishor Leads in Bihar Bye-Election; BJP Ahead in Gujarat and MP

New Delhi, India Aug 3, 2026 ALN: Jan Suraaj party chief Prashant Kishor is currently leading in Bihar's Bankipur bye-election. As the counting of votes continued on Monday, Kishor's lead over Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Neeraj Kumar had surpassed 1,100 votes after the third round of counting, according to data released by the Election Commission. This bye-election marks Kishor's electoral debut, making it a significant moment for both him and his party. The stakes are high not just for Kishor but also for the BJP, which has traditionally held a strong position in this constituency.

As of 10:35 AM, Rekha Kumari, the candidate from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which is recognized as Bihar's largest opposition party, was trailing in third place. With twenty-eight rounds of counting still to be conducted, the outcome of the election remains uncertain. The bye-poll itself was held on Friday, with a reported voter turnout of only 34%. This low turnout may reflect voter apathy or dissatisfaction with the political options available, a trend that has been observed in various elections across India. Low voter turnout can be indicative of broader issues within the electoral system, including voter disenfranchisement, lack of trust in political candidates, or a failure of political parties to engage with the electorate meaningfully.

The necessity for this bye-election arose following the resignation of the previous MLA, BJP National President Nitin Nabin, who vacated the seat after being elected to the Rajya Sabha, India's upper house of Parliament. The Bankipur constituency, located near Patna, has traditionally been considered a stronghold for the BJP, with Nabin having held the seat since 2010. Prior to that, he represented the Patna West constituency before its boundaries were redrawn, further solidifying the BJP's presence in the region. The BJP's historical dominance in Bankipur adds pressure on Kishor to perform well, as any significant shift in voter sentiment could signal a broader change in the political landscape of Bihar.

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party made its electoral debut during the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, where it fielded candidates in 238 out of the 243 constituencies in the state. However, the party faced significant challenges, failing to secure any seats and losing its deposits in 236 constituencies where its candidates received less than one-sixth of the votes cast. This dismal performance raised questions about the party's strategy and its appeal among voters. Kishor's decision to launch a political party was rooted in his desire to address the political helplessness felt by many voters in Bihar, a state that has long grappled with issues of governance, corruption, and socio-economic challenges.

In the aftermath of that election, Kishor acknowledged that his decision not to contest personally might have been a miscalculation. His party was launched in October 2024 with a stated aim of addressing the political helplessness felt by voters in Bihar and providing an alternative to the existing political landscape. Kishor's background as a political strategist, having previously worked for various parties, including the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party, adds a layer of complexity to his political ambitions. His experience in crafting successful electoral strategies for other parties raises expectations about his ability to translate that knowledge into effective campaigning for his own party.

Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh Bye-Polls

In addition to the developments in Bihar, bye-elections are also taking place in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, with the BJP showing strong leads in both states. In Gujarat’s Manjalpur constituency, BJP candidate Satendrabhai Patel was leading over Congress candidate Bhikhabhai Rabari by more than 11,000 votes as of 10:20 AM after the sixth round of counting, with thirteen rounds still remaining. The bye-poll was necessitated by the death of BJP MLA Yogesh Patel in June, a loss that the party is clearly aiming to recover from with a strong showing in this election. The BJP's ability to maintain or increase its lead in Gujarat reflects its entrenched position in the state, where it has been the dominant party for over two decades.

Meanwhile, in Madhya Pradesh’s Datia constituency, BJP candidate Ashutosh Tiwari was ahead of Congress candidate Kuwar Ghanshyam Singh by 875 votes after the second round, with thirteen rounds of counting left. This bye-election was called following the disqualification of Congress MLA Rajendra Bharti, who was convicted in a bank fraud case earlier this year and sentenced to three years in prison. Bharti's conviction and subsequent disqualification have put the Congress party in a difficult position, especially considering that he had previously defeated BJP leader Narottam Mishra, who was serving as the state home minister at the time of the 2023 elections. The dynamics of this bye-election could have significant implications for the Congress party's strategy going forward, particularly as it seeks to regain ground in a state where the BJP has been consistently strong.

The implications of these bye-elections extend beyond mere party representation; they reflect the ongoing political dynamics in India, particularly in states like Bihar, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh where the BJP has maintained a strong foothold. The results of these bye-elections may signal shifts in voter sentiment and could influence strategies for upcoming elections, including the general elections scheduled for 2024. The outcomes could also serve as a barometer for the effectiveness of the BJP's governance and its ability to connect with the electorate on pressing issues such as economic development, education, and healthcare.

The low voter turnout in Bihar's Bankipur bye-election raises concerns about electoral engagement and the effectiveness of political parties in mobilizing support. Factors contributing to low turnout can include voter fatigue, dissatisfaction with candidates, or a lack of compelling issues that resonate with the electorate. This trend could serve as a wake-up call for political parties, including Kishor's Jan Suraaj, to reevaluate their outreach and engagement strategies to better connect with voters. Engaging with local communities, addressing grassroots issues, and fostering a sense of political accountability may be essential for parties looking to increase voter participation in future elections.

As the counting continues in these bye-elections, all eyes will be on the final outcomes, which could reshape the political landscape in these states. For Prashant Kishor, a win in Bankipur would not only validate his political ambitions but also provide a much-needed boost to his party's credibility after a rocky start in the previous elections. Conversely, a strong performance by the BJP in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh could reinforce its dominance in these states and bolster its position ahead of the national elections. The unfolding political narratives in these bye-elections will undoubtedly be closely monitored by analysts, party strategists, and voters alike as they prepare for the future. The results could also have broader implications for regional politics, influencing how political alliances are formed and how parties position themselves in the lead-up to the general elections.