Geopolitical Analyst Predicts Pakistan as Likely First Nuclear User

New Delhi, India Aug 12, 2026 ALN: Mumbai: Geopolitical analyst and academic Professor Jiang Xueqin triggered a debate online after suggesting that if any country were to use nuclear weapons first in a future conflict, Pakistan would be the most likely candidate, citing what he described as the country's internal instability and weak institutional controls. The remarks have sparked worrisome signs for India as it shares a border with the nation and also strained relations.

Speaking on entrepreneur and YouTuber Raj Shamani's podcast, Jiang stressed that he believes the chances of nuclear weapons being used during our lifetimes are 'almost zero', pointing to what he called a global taboo against nuclear warfare. "I personally do not believe that nuclear weapons will be used in our lifetimes ever because there's a universal taboo against nuclear weapons," Jiang said during the discussion.

However, when asked which country might be most likely to use nuclear weapons first if such a scenario were to arise, Jiang named Pakistan, while also briefly mentioning India as part of a potential India-Pakistan conflict scenario.

'Weak, Disorganised Nation With Nuclear Weapons': Jiang On Pakistan

Explaining his assessment, Jiang argued that Pakistan's political and institutional vulnerabilities make it a higher-risk nuclear power. "Pakistan is a very weak, disorganised nation with nuclear weapons. Its control systems may not be in place to restrain itself in an emergency," he said.

The analyst further described Pakistan as a country facing challenges such as political divisions, economic difficulties and corruption, adding that any potential nuclear-use scenario would most likely emerge from a conflict between India and Pakistan. The history of military confrontations between these two nations, including the wars of 1947, 1965, and the Kargil conflict in 1999, has created an environment where tensions frequently escalate, raising concerns about the potential for nuclear engagement.

India’s No-First-Use Policy Mentioned

During the conversation, Jiang contrasted Pakistan's position with India's long-standing nuclear doctrine. He noted that India has traditionally maintained a No First Use (NFU) policy, under which it pledges not to initiate a nuclear strike. This policy, established in the late 1990s, reflects India's strategic approach to deterrence and is rooted in its historical context, including its own experiences with nuclear threats and the desire to project a responsible nuclear posture. According to Jiang, India possesses sufficient conventional military capabilities and therefore does not face the same strategic pressures as Pakistan.

"India has this approach and philosophy that we never use first," he said. Jiang also argued that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is viewed by its military establishment as a deterrent against India's larger conventional forces. The asymmetry in military capabilities has led Pakistan to adopt a strategy that includes the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, which some analysts argue could lower the threshold for nuclear use in a conventional conflict.

'Almost Zero Chance' Of Nuclear War

Despite his comments, Jiang repeatedly emphasised that he considers the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used extremely low. He argued that any nation initiating a nuclear strike would face severe international consequences and likely retaliation, making such a decision highly improbable. This perspective aligns with the broader international consensus that nuclear weapons serve primarily as deterrents rather than tools for active warfare.

The implications of Jiang's statements are significant, particularly in the context of South Asian geopolitics. The potential for nuclear conflict in the region remains a critical concern for global security, given that both India and Pakistan possess substantial nuclear arsenals. The ongoing tensions, particularly over disputed territories such as Kashmir, continue to fuel anxieties about military escalations.

Furthermore, the internal dynamics within Pakistan, as highlighted by Jiang, raise important questions about the stability of its nuclear command and control structures. The potential for extremist groups to exploit political instability or for miscalculations to occur during crises adds layers of complexity to the situation. International observers often stress the importance of robust communication channels between India and Pakistan to mitigate risks and prevent misunderstandings that could lead to conflict.

In recent years, both nations have engaged in various confidence-building measures aimed at reducing tensions, but these efforts have often been undermined by political rhetoric and military posturing. The role of external powers, particularly the United States and China, also plays a crucial part in shaping the strategic landscape of South Asia. The U.S. has historically maintained a relationship with India while balancing its engagements with Pakistan, especially in the context of counterterrorism efforts.

Jiang's remarks have reignited discussions about nuclear strategy in South Asia, prompting analysts to examine the implications of Pakistan's internal challenges on its nuclear doctrine. The debate over whether Pakistan's nuclear arsenal acts as a stabilizing or destabilizing factor in the region is ongoing, with differing opinions on the effectiveness of its deterrent capabilities amidst internal strife.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the need for dialogue and diplomatic engagement remains critical. The international community's role in facilitating discussions between India and Pakistan could be vital in reducing the risks associated with nuclear weapons and ensuring that the taboo against their use remains intact. Jiang's predictions, while controversial, serve as a reminder of the fragile balance of power in South Asia and the enduring importance of nuclear non-proliferation efforts globally.

In conclusion, while Jiang's assertion about Pakistan being the likely first nuclear user has provoked significant debate, it underscores the complex interplay of internal vulnerabilities, regional tensions, and the overarching global norms surrounding nuclear weapons. The future of nuclear strategy in South Asia will depend heavily on the actions of both nations, as well as the influence of external actors committed to maintaining peace and stability in the region.