‘Pahalgam, Gulmarg warmed by nearly 1°C in two decades’

New Delhi, India Jul 12, 2026 ALN: Srinagar: High-altitude regions of Jammu and Kashmir, including the tourist destinations of Pahalgam and Gulmarg, have witnessed a temperature rise of nearly 1°C over the last two decades, highlighting the growing impact of climate change on the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, according to a new scientific study.

The study, titled “Warming of the High-Mountainous Climate Sensitive Jammu and Kashmir During the Period 1980–2024,” was conducted by researchers G.S. Gopikrishnan, Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath, and V.M. Pranav Chandran from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kharagpur. This research is part of a broader effort to understand how climate change is affecting various regions in India, particularly those that are ecologically sensitive. Understanding these changes is crucial, as the Himalayas are not only a significant geographical feature but also a critical lifeline for millions of people who rely on its resources.

Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing global challenges, with its effects being felt across various ecosystems. The Himalayan region, often referred to as the "Third Pole" due to its vast ice reserves, is particularly vulnerable. The Himalayas are not only crucial for biodiversity but also serve as a vital water source for millions of people in South Asia. The current study adds to the growing body of evidence indicating that these high-altitude areas are undergoing significant climatic changes, which could have far-reaching implications for weather patterns, agriculture, and water security in the region.

The researchers analysed temperature records from 1980 to 2024 using observations from ten India Meteorological Department (IMD) stations across Jammu and Kashmir, including Jammu, Srinagar, Pahalgam, Gulmarg, Kupwara, Kokernag, Qazigund, Banihal, Batote, and Bhaderwah. By employing a comprehensive dataset, the study aims to provide a clear picture of how temperatures are changing in this ecologically sensitive area. The choice of these locations is significant, as they represent a range of altitudes and climates, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of how temperature changes vary across different environments.

One of the key findings of the study is that warming is not uniform across the region. Mid- and high-altitude areas have experienced a stronger rise in temperatures than lower-altitude locations, a phenomenon known as Elevation-Dependent Warming (EDW). This phenomenon suggests that as altitude increases, the rate of warming also increases, which poses unique challenges for the ecosystems and communities that inhabit these regions. For instance, species adapted to specific temperature ranges may find it increasingly difficult to survive as their habitats change more rapidly than they can adapt.

The strongest warming was recorded during winter, particularly in daytime temperatures at higher elevations. This is significant as winter is a crucial season for snow accumulation, which impacts water availability in the warmer months. Changes in winter temperatures can lead to altered snowmelt patterns, which could affect river flows and water supply for agriculture and drinking. The implications of these changes are profound, as many communities depend on predictable water supplies for their livelihoods, particularly in agriculture, which is sensitive to changes in weather patterns.

According to the findings, Pahalgam and Gulmarg have warmed by nearly 1°C over the past two decades, while several mid-elevation stations also showed significant increases in average temperatures. Bhaderwah recorded one of the highest annual warming trends of around 0.3°C per decade. Such increases in temperature can lead to a cascade of ecological effects, including shifts in species distributions and the timing of biological events, which can disrupt local ecosystems. For example, earlier snowmelt could lead to mismatches in the timing of plant flowering and pollinator activity, potentially harming both plant and animal populations.

The study also found that night-time temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temperatures across many mountain stations. Minimum temperatures rose by 0.1°C to 0.5°C per decade in several mid- and high-altitude locations, indicating reduced night-time cooling. This trend can have serious implications for wildlife and plant species that rely on specific temperature ranges for their survival and reproduction. Many species have adapted to the natural temperature fluctuations of day and night, and significant changes in this pattern can lead to stress and population declines.

Researchers attribute the winter warming at higher elevations mainly to surface albedo changes, where shrinking snow cover exposes darker ground that absorbs more solar radiation. This feedback loop can exacerbate warming trends, creating a cycle that is difficult to reverse. Rising atmospheric moisture and increased longwave radiation were identified as key contributors to the rapid increase in night-time temperatures. The implications of these changes extend beyond just temperature increases; they can affect local weather patterns, precipitation rates, and overall climate stability, which are essential for maintaining the delicate balance of the Himalayan ecosystem.

The authors cautioned that continued warming in Jammu and Kashmir’s mountain regions could have serious implications for glaciers, snow cover, river flows, biodiversity, and water security, affecting millions of people dependent on Himalayan water resources. Glaciers in the Himalayas are already retreating at an alarming rate, and further temperature increases could accelerate this process, leading to more frequent and severe water shortages in the region. The loss of glaciers not only affects water supply but also impacts local weather patterns, as glaciers play a crucial role in regulating the climate of the surrounding areas.

While the study confirms significant warming trends across the region, the researchers noted that observations above 3,000 metres remain limited and called for a denser network of high-altitude weather stations to improve future climate assessments. Enhanced monitoring is crucial for understanding the full scope of climate change impacts and for developing effective adaptation strategies. Without comprehensive data, it becomes increasingly difficult to predict future changes and to implement timely interventions.

The findings add to growing evidence that the Western Himalaya is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change, underlining the need for stronger adaptation strategies to safeguard the region’s fragile mountain ecosystems and water resources. Policymakers and local communities must work together to develop comprehensive plans that address the challenges posed by climate change, including sustainable water management, conservation of biodiversity, and resilience-building measures. Collaborative efforts are essential for ensuring that communities can adapt to changing conditions while also protecting the unique environment of the Himalayas.

As the effects of climate change continue to unfold, it is imperative that both local and global communities recognize the importance of the Himalayan region and take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts of warming. The future of the millions who depend on these ecosystems, as well as the rich biodiversity that exists in the Himalayas, hinges on our collective ability to respond to these challenges effectively. Engaging with local populations, integrating traditional knowledge with scientific research, and fostering awareness about climate change can play significant roles in building resilience and ensuring sustainable development in this critical region.