Mangaluru’s monsoon has changed: IMD explains new rainfall pattern

New Delhi, India Jul 9, 2026 ALN: Mangaluru: The southwest monsoon in Dakshina Kannada is behaving differently this year. Although the district has been receiving rain almost every day, the familiar days-long spells of continuous rainfall have largely disappeared, giving way to short bursts of intense showers. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this shift has contributed to a significant rainfall deficit and could have long-term implications for groundwater recharge.

Historically, the southwest monsoon has been a critical period for the coastal regions of Karnataka, including Dakshina Kannada. The monsoon typically begins in June and lasts until September, bringing with it a significant portion of the annual rainfall that supports agriculture, replenishes water bodies, and sustains the local ecosystem. However, the current season has deviated from this norm, raising concerns among meteorologists, environmentalists, and the local population.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the district recorded a 33 per cent rainfall deficit in June, and rainfall is expected to remain below normal in the coming months. The weather agency has already predicted a 30-40 per cent rainfall deficit across coastal Karnataka during August and September, largely due to the influence of El Niño. El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which can have widespread effects on global weather patterns, including altered rainfall distribution.

Sajeev R., Scientist-E at the IMD’s Doppler Weather Radar Centre in Mangaluru, said Dakshina Kannada is likely to receive around 1,035 mm of rainfall in July, spread across nearly 28 rainy days. However, the way the rain is falling has changed, marking a significant departure from the traditional monsoon behavior.

“Rain is occurring on most days, but it is no longer the continuous downpour that the coast is known for. Instead, we are seeing brief but intense showers that last for 15 to 20 minutes before stopping,” he said. This change in rainfall pattern poses challenges not only for agriculture but also for water management and urban planning in Mangaluru.

According to IMD, this new rainfall pattern allows more water to flow away as surface runoff instead of soaking into the ground. As a result, groundwater recharge is likely to be lower despite frequent rainfall. Groundwater is a critical resource for many communities, especially in regions where surface water bodies may be scarce or seasonal. The implications of decreased groundwater recharge can be profound, potentially leading to water scarcity in the dry months and affecting agricultural productivity.

“When rain falls in short, heavy spells, much of the water runs off quickly. To improve groundwater levels, we need to reduce runoff and increase the amount of water that percolates into the soil,” Sajeev explained. This highlights the importance of implementing effective water conservation techniques, such as rainwater harvesting and soil management practices that enhance infiltration and reduce surface runoff.

The department has also observed that the southwest monsoon circulation has weakened this season. Although monsoon winds continue to blow along the coast, they are not as strong or persistent as in previous years, resulting in reduced rainfall activity. This weakening of monsoon circulation can be attributed to various climatic factors, including global warming and changes in land use patterns, which have been shown to affect local weather systems.

Another notable change is the uneven distribution of rainfall within short distances. Unlike previous monsoon seasons, when most parts of Mangaluru received nearly the same amount of rain, showers are now becoming highly localized due to convective cloud formation. This phenomenon occurs when warm, moist air rises and cools, leading to the formation of clouds that can produce intense rainfall over small areas. Such localized rainfall can lead to significant disparities in water availability, affecting different communities unevenly.

“One area may receive 5 cm of rain while another locality just a few kilometers away gets only 2 cm,” Sajeev said, adding that such variations have become increasingly common this season. This variability can complicate water resource management, as different regions may experience different levels of drought or flooding, necessitating tailored responses to address local conditions.

Despite the rainfall deficit, the changed monsoon has also brought some relief. With fewer prolonged spells of rain during the day, daily life and economic activities have continued with fewer interruptions. Schools are expected to witness fewer rain-related holidays, flood situations may be less frequent, and sea conditions have remained comparatively calmer than in recent monsoon seasons, according to IMD. This could have positive implications for tourism and local businesses that rely on stable weather conditions.

However, while the immediate effects of the altered monsoon may seem beneficial in terms of reduced disruption, the long-term implications for water availability, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem health cannot be overlooked. As the region grapples with these changes, it may be necessary for local authorities and communities to adapt their strategies for water management, agriculture, and disaster preparedness to align with the new realities of the monsoon.

In conclusion, the shifting patterns of the southwest monsoon in Mangaluru reflect broader changes in climate and weather systems that are being observed globally. Understanding these changes, their causes, and their implications is crucial for developing effective responses to ensure water security, agricultural resilience, and sustainable development in the region. As meteorological science continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring and research will be essential to better anticipate and mitigate the impacts of changing rainfall patterns on local communities.